| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Apr 19, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Apr 20, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Apr 21, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Apr 25, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Apr 28, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Congress will enact legislation renewing FISA authorities before those authorities lapse. The outcome matters because it determines whether key national-security surveillance authorities continue without legislative interruption.
The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act establishes statutory authorities used for certain foreign-intelligence collection and has been amended and renewed multiple times since its enactment. Reauthorization debates typically pit national-security concerns against civil-liberties and oversight demands, with negotiations occurring in both the House and the Senate and involving the White House. Because the authorities can be modified by statute, reauthorization often includes negotiations over substantive policy changes as well as timing.
Prediction-market prices aggregate participants’ assessments of whether Congress will complete the necessary legislative steps before the statutory sunset. Prices move in response to new information about floor schedules, negotiations, votes, and executive-branch statements.
For this event, 'reauthorize' means Congress enacts a statute before the current authorities expire that legally renews or extends the relevant FISA authorities. That can be a comprehensive reauthorization or a short-term statutory extension, provided it becomes law before expiration.
Both chambers must pass compatible legislation and the bill must become law—this typically requires House passage, Senate passage (or a conference/agreement), and either the President’s signature or a veto override. Committee chairs, floor leaders, and schedulers determine timing and movement.
Yes: a temporary statutory extension signed into law prior to the sunset legally renews the authorities and therefore counts as reauthorization for the purposes of the event. Administrative or informal continuations that are not enacted by statute do not qualify.
If no statute is enacted before expiration, the specified authorities would lapse and programs that rely on them could be legally constrained or halted, prompting contingency planning, potential legal challenges, and urgent legislative or executive action to restore authorities.
Key signals include committee markup schedules and reports, public statements from House and Senate leadership and relevant committee chairs, floor calendar entries, bipartisan deal announcements, White House communications, agency impact letters, and any recorded votes or cloture outcomes related to reauthorization measures.