| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Apr 29, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Apr 30, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before May 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before May 2, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before May 3, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the legislative timeline for the reauthorization of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA). It serves as a benchmark for gauging congressional consensus on national security surveillance authorities.
FISA Section 702 allows the U.S. government to conduct targeted surveillance of non-U.S. persons located abroad to acquire foreign intelligence. The act is subject to periodic sunset provisions, requiring Congress to periodically debate and renew the authority amid ongoing tensions between national security needs and privacy civil liberties.
The market prices reflect the collective anticipation of how quickly legislative chambers can reconcile disparate reform proposals and pass a renewal bill before existing authorities expire.
If Congress fails to act before an expiration date, the government's specific surveillance authority under Section 702 ceases, necessitating a legal wind-down of existing operations.
The primary debate centers on whether the FBI should be required to obtain a warrant before querying data collected on U.S. citizens that is incidentally swept up during surveillance of foreign targets.
Both chambers must pass identical legislation before it can be sent to the President for signature, meaning the market is sensitive to delays in either chamber.
Historically, renewals have often been subject to intense last-minute negotiations, sometimes resulting in short-term extensions before a long-term reauthorization is finalized.
The administration typically lobbies Congress heavily for reauthorization, framing it as an essential tool for national security, which can accelerate or stall legislative momentum.