| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before 2028 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before 2029 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before 2030 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which date range (if any) will be the one when Elon Musk reaches a net worth of $1 trillion and matters because that milestone would reflect the scale and market valuation of his assets and can affect markets and investor expectations.
Elon Musk’s estimated net worth is driven largely by equity stakes in public and private companies (notably Tesla and SpaceX) and fluctuates with market prices, funding rounds, and realized transactions. Past billionaire milestones have depended on stock volatility, private valuation events, and corporate actions, all of which can rapidly change headline net worth estimates.
Prediction market prices are the market’s aggregated view on which outcome will occur given the contract’s settlement rules; price movements reflect new information and changing expectations rather than a fixed ‘true’ probability.
This market offers five mutually exclusive outcomes representing different date ranges (or a never/after-range outcome); consult the market page for the precise date-range labels and the contract’s settlement definitions.
Settlement follows the market’s specified resolution rules and data source — typically an authoritative published estimate at the contract’s settlement time — so a brief intraday peak only counts if the contract’s definition records that crossing in its specified reference.
Whether unrealized gains count depends on the contract’s chosen data source and definition of ‘net worth’; many public estimates include unrealized equity values, so check the event terms to see which measurement is used for settlement.
Large sales can both realize value and depress market prices; an IPO or new funding round can materially change reported valuations of private holdings — each type of corporate action can move headline net worth and therefore affect which outcome the market favors.
With the close TBD the market remains open for trading until organizers set a final close date; traders should monitor official updates for the closing schedule and any clarifications to settlement methodology, as timing determines which outcomes are eligible.