| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Feb 10, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before Feb 14, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before Mar 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before Mar 10, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before Mar 20, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before Apr 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks when the Department of Homeland Security will receive enacted, full-year appropriations for the fiscal year rather than temporary stopgap funding. The timing matters because full-year funding determines DHS program stability, contracting, and planning across border security, cybersecurity, disaster response, and other missions.
U.S. federal agencies are normally funded through annual appropriations bills; the fiscal year begins October 1. Congress frequently uses continuing resolutions (CRs) or omnibus packages when regular appropriations are delayed, so DHS has often operated on temporary authority in past cycles. Political disputes over issues tied to DHS funding — for example border policy, immigration measures, or defense offsets — have historically driven late or omnibus settlements.
Market prices aggregate public information and trader expectations about when Congress will enact full-year DHS funding; they update quickly after new legislative signals, votes, or announcements. Use the market as a real-time barometer of changing chances, not a substitute for following the legislative calendar and official actions.
Full-year funding means Congress has enacted and the president has signed appropriations that fund DHS for the entire fiscal year (rather than a continuing resolution that provides temporary authority). It can be a DHS-specific appropriations bill or an omnibus/continuing appropriations act that includes DHS.
Key actions are committee markups, reported appropriations bills, passage in the House and Senate (or inclusion in an omnibus), successful conference agreements, and presidential signature. Any of those steps that yield enacted, multi-month or full-year language for DHS constitutes full-year funding.
Continuing resolutions extend temporary funding and push out the date of full-year enactment; repeated or long CRs make a near-term full-year outcome less likely until lawmakers agree on a final package.
House and Senate appropriations subcommittee chairs, chamber leadership in both parties, key moderates or holdouts who can block passage, and the White House (through budget priorities and direct negotiations) are the principal actors affecting timing.
Announcements of deal framework agreements, scheduled floor votes, bipartisan negotiations, withdrawal or addition of contentious riders, or emergency requests from the administration (e.g., disaster funding) typically prompt rapid updates to market expectations.