| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before March 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before February 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before April 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before May 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before June 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before July 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before October 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before January 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market asks when Bitcoin will next reach the $100,000 price level; that milestone matters because it influences trader positioning, institutional narratives, and broader market sentiment in crypto markets.
Bitcoin price moves have historically been driven by a mix of supply dynamics, macro liquidity, and waves of institutional adoption; $100k is both a psychological benchmark and a focal point for derivatives and media attention. The market captures collective expectations about the timing of the next rally to that level, aggregating news and events as they happen.
Market prices and odds are a live aggregation of participant expectations about which time window (one of the eight outcomes) will contain the crossing; interpret them as a continuously updating signal, not a guarantee of future price action.
Settlement depends on the contract's defined reference price and data source; typically it means Bitcoin reaches or exceeds $100,000 on the specified public price feed during the outcome's window, but you must check the market page for the precise settlement definition (e.g., single trade vs. time-weighted price).
The eight outcomes partition future time into mutually exclusive windows (each outcome corresponds to a different date range or condition). Only the outcome whose window contains the qualifying $100k crossing will settle true; consult the market's outcome labels on Kalshi for the exact dates.
The market close is listed as TBD; Kalshi will announce a closing time and the settlement process on the market page. Settlement occurs according to the exchange's published rules and the contract's reference source, and Kalshi will publish the official settlement determination.
Major catalysts include Bitcoin network events (e.g., halving), large institutional product approvals or inflows, definitive regulatory rulings or legislation, sudden macro shocks (rate changes or liquidity events), and concentrated whale trading or exchange disruptions.
Whether a brief spike counts depends on the contract's settlement criteria — some contracts accept any trade at or above the threshold on the reference feed, others require a sustained or timestamped close; check the market's settlement rules to know which applies.