| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $69,250 or above | 92% | 92¢ | 93¢ | — | $459K | Trade → |
| $69,750 or above | 7% | 7¢ | 8¢ | — | $257K | Trade → |
| $68,750 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $246K | Trade → |
| $68,250 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $207K | Trade → |
| $70,250 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $152K | Trade → |
| $67,750 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $103K | Trade → |
| $65,250 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $102K | Trade → |
| $66,250 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $93K | Trade → |
| $67,250 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $88K | Trade → |
| $66,750 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $78K | Trade → |
| $65,750 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $63K | Trade → |
| $70,750 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $59K | Trade → |
| $64,750 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $54K | Trade → |
| $64,250 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $48K | Trade → |
| $63,750 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $30K | Trade → |
| $71,250 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $27K | Trade → |
| $63,250 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| $72,750 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| $71,750 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| $62,250 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| $72,250 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| $62,750 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| $73,750 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| $61,750 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| $60,250 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| $60,750 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| $61,250 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| $59,250 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| $56,250 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| $59,750 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| $58,750 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| $74,250 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| $56,750 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| $57,750 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| $73,250 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| $75,250 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| $57,250 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| $58,250 or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| $74,750 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $747 | Trade → |
| $75,750 or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $573 | Trade → |
This market allows participants to forecast the price of Bitcoin at a precise moment on March 2, 2026. It serves as a benchmark for market sentiment regarding Bitcoin's long-term valuation and adoption trajectory.
Bitcoin prices are driven by complex interactions between macroeconomic conditions, regulatory shifts, and institutional adoption. By March 2026, the market will have had time to digest the long-term impacts of previous halving events and evolving global monetary policies. This event captures the collective expectation of market participants as they weigh these diverse economic variables.
The prices in this market reflect the aggregated wisdom of traders regarding the most likely price bracket for Bitcoin at the specified time. A higher price for a specific outcome indicates a greater market consensus that the asset will settle within that range.
The market outcome is determined strictly by the price at 5pm EST on the designated date, regardless of the volatility experienced in the days or hours preceding it.
The settlement price is derived from the specific price feed or index designated by the exchange rules at the time of the event's expiration.
The halving reduces the issuance rate of new Bitcoin, which historically impacts supply-side dynamics and often serves as a focal point for long-term price cycles.
Yes, investors should monitor upcoming central bank meetings, global liquidity reports, and changes in crypto-taxation policy, all of which can influence market sentiment over the duration of the contract.
The exchange rules specify a fallback mechanism or an alternative data provider to ensure the event can be settled based on the intended market price.