| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
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| Before Jan 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before May 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jul 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Aug 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jun 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Apr 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks when any member of President Trump's Cabinet will leave their position. It matters because Cabinet departures can signal shifts in policy direction, affect implementation of priorities, and influence political stability.
Cabinet turnover can occur for many reasons — resignations, dismissals, retirements, health issues, or reassignments — and historically varies across administrations. Departures can be driven by political scandals, policy disputes, personnel changes around elections or transitions, and unexpected personal circumstances. Monitoring departures provides insight into internal administration dynamics and potential policy continuity risks.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about timing and update as new information arrives; treat them as real-time indicators of market sentiment rather than certainties. Changes in news flow, official announcements, and credible reporting will typically drive the largest moves in this market.
This typically includes statutory Cabinet secretaries and any officials officially designated as Cabinet-level by the President at the time of service. Whether an individual is treated as a Cabinet member for resolution depends on how the exchange defines the market's eligible positions.
Yes — departures due to resignation, removal/dismissal, retirement, or death generally count as a Cabinet member leaving. Temporary absences (e.g., short medical leaves) that do not result in leaving the office normally do not count.
If one or more departures occur on the same calendar date, the market resolves to the outcome that includes that date. Simultaneous departures still constitute an occurrence for timing-based outcomes.
Acting officials who are serving in a role that the administration designates as Cabinet-level are typically treated the same as confirmed officials for the purposes of a departure. Resolution depends on the exchange's specific eligibility criteria.
Verified announcements, credible reporting, and leaks often move the market quickly as participants update expectations. The market's closing or settlement date is set by the exchange (currently listed as TBD), so check the exchange for official timing and settlement rules.