| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Apr 2026 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $85K | Trade → |
| Before Mar 2026 | 1% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $56K | Resolved |
| Before May 2026 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $22K | Trade → |
| Before Jun 2026 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| Before Sep 2026 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| Before Jan 2027 | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
This prediction market asks when a member of President Trump's Cabinet will leave office. It matters because cabinet departures can indicate shifts in policy direction, administrative stability, or political pressure within the administration.
Cabinet turnover can occur for routine, personal, or political reasons and has varied across administrations; some departures are planned (retirements, new appointments) while others follow controversies, investigations, or performance issues. The timing of any departure reflects both individual circumstances and broader political dynamics, such as legislative fights, electoral calendars, or crisis responses.
Market prices aggregate the information and expectations of participants and update as new information arrives; they are signals of collective belief about timing, not guarantees. Use prices as an indication of changing odds following news rather than definitive predictions.
Markets typically rely on a posted definition that may include Senate-confirmed department heads and designated Cabinet-level officials; consult the event’s official rules to see which offices are included for settlement.
‘Leave’ generally means a formal, public end to service — resignation, dismissal, death, or appointment to another position — as recorded in official announcements; temporary absences usually do not count unless the market rules specify otherwise.
Whether acting officials are included depends on the market’s specific definition; some markets count only confirmed Cabinet members while others include designated acting Cabinet-level officials, so check the event rules for scope.
Most markets treat the departure as occurring on the effective date listed in official statements or public records; an announced intent alone usually does not settle the market until the departure is effective, unless the event rules state otherwise.
Significant developments such as credible allegations, investigative findings, public clashes with the President, major policy failures, sudden health disclosures, or formal resignation announcements are the kinds of news that typically produce large price moves.