| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donroe Doctrine | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $66K | Trade → |
| Midnight Hammer | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $64K | Trade → |
| Epic Fury | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $52K | Trade → |
| Nuclear | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $51K | Trade → |
| Israel / Israeli | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $47K | Trade → |
| Democrat | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $37K | Trade → |
| China | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $35K | Trade → |
| Iran | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $32K | Trade → |
| Mog / Mogged / Mogging | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $31K | Trade → |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $24K | Trade → |
| Kristi / Noem | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $22K | Trade → |
| National Security | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| Hottest | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
| Illegal Alien | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
| Tariff | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
| Hormuz | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| Stock Market | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| Fentanyl | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| Eight War | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| Biden | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| Terrorist | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| Cartel | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| Cuba | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| Maduro | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| Trillion | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| Oil | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| Marco / Rubio | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| Border | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Epstein | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Gulf of America | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks which specific words, names, countries, policies, or themes former President Donald Trump will mention during his appearance at the Shield of Americas Summit and why those mentions matter. The content of his remarks can shift political narratives, media coverage, and responses from regional leaders.
The Shield of Americas Summit is a regional security and political forum where leaders and commentators discuss defense, migration, and hemispheric cooperation; speakers often combine policy statements with political messaging. Historically, high-profile appearances by Trump at summit-style events mix campaign rhetoric, targeted criticisms of opponents, and policy proposals, and what he emphasizes often reflects immediate geopolitical developments and campaign priorities. This specific market lists 30 possible mentions and shows active trading volume as participants express expectations about his language.
Market prices aggregate traders' expectations about which mentions are most likely given current information and will evolve as new facts emerge. Treat prices as a real-time signal of collective expectation, not a definitive forecast.
The exact speaking time is set by the summit schedule; outcomes typically reference statements made during his official on-stage appearance. Market resolution and which remarks count depend on the event's published timing and the operator's rules about including remarks made off-stage or at ancillary events.
Each outcome is worded to capture a specific kind of mention — some target exact words or names, others cover countries or policy terms, and some reflect broader slogans or themes. Review each outcome's exact phrasing to understand whether it requires an exact keyword, any mention of a topic, or a thematic reference.
The market operator (Kalshi) typically uses public video, official transcripts, and the event's resolution criteria to adjudicate which outcomes occurred; check the event's official rules for standards of evidence and tie-breaking procedures.
Breaking news such as a regional security incident, a surprise diplomatic development, a legal ruling, or shifts in campaign strategy can alter speaking priorities and increase the likelihood of specific mentions in real time.
It depends on the outcome wording: keyword-specific outcomes generally require the exact word or name, while broader thematic outcomes may be satisfied by paraphrase. Consult each outcome's precise language and the market's adjudication guidelines for how paraphrase is treated.