| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $536K | Trade → |
| Khamenei / Ayatollah | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $471K | Trade → |
| Epic Fury | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $300K | Trade → |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $192K | Trade → |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $181K | Trade → |
| Pete / Hegseth | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $119K | Trade → |
| Biden | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $113K | Trade → |
| Mog / Mogged / Mogging | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $112K | Trade → |
| Congress / Congressional | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $107K | Trade → |
| Peace in the Middle East | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $101K | Trade → |
| Sacrifice / Sacrificed | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $101K | Trade → |
| Peace Through Strength | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $98K | Trade → |
| Oil | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $89K | Trade → |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $88K | Trade → |
| Democrat | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $86K | Trade → |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $84K | Trade → |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $80K | Trade → |
| Uranium | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $78K | Trade → |
| Iran | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $77K | Trade → |
| Constitution / Constitutional | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $68K | Trade → |
| Marco / Rubio | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $67K | Trade → |
| Venezuela | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $57K | Trade → |
| Midnight Hammer | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $48K | Trade → |
| Hottest | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $48K | Trade → |
| Eight War | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $45K | Trade → |
| Cookie | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $44K | Trade → |
| Thug | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $40K | Trade → |
| Tariff | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $33K | Trade → |
| Zohran / Mamdani | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $25K | Trade → |
| Cuba / Turkey | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
This market tracks specific rhetoric used by Donald Trump during Medal of Honor ceremonies, serving as a gauge for how he utilizes high-profile military honors to frame political messaging.
The Medal of Honor is the nation’s highest military decoration, traditionally reserved for non-partisan recognition of extraordinary valor. As a former president and current political figure, Trump’s speeches during these events are closely scrutinized for departures from traditional protocol, including references to political rivals, personal grievances, or his own policy achievements.
Market participants evaluate the likelihood of specific verbal markers based on Trump’s historical speaking patterns, current political climate, and the specific context of the ceremony in question.
Market outcomes are determined based on an objective transcript analysis of the speech delivered at the specific event.
The market rules typically stipulate that if the event does not take place as scheduled, the market may be voided or deferred depending on specific exchange policies.
Yes, any audible comment made by Trump while at the podium or microphone during the ceremony is considered part of the speech record.
The market evaluates the totality of the speech; whether a phrase was scripted or improvised does not change the objective fact of its occurrence.
High-intensity news cycles often increase the probability that a speaker will address current events, even during formal ceremonies.