| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayatollah / Khamenei | 59% | 72¢ | 84¢ | — | $443 | Trade → |
| Trump (5+ times) | 67% | 55¢ | 65¢ | — | $287 | Trade → |
| Israel / Israeli | 95% | 61¢ | 93¢ | — | $140 | Trade → |
| Oil | 55% | 55¢ | 64¢ | — | $125 | Trade → |
| Democrat | 61% | 33¢ | 61¢ | — | $89 | Trade → |
| America First | 55% | 45¢ | 74¢ | — | $52 | Trade → |
| Nuclear | 90% | 52¢ | 90¢ | — | $33 | Trade → |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | 90% | 82¢ | 89¢ | — | $33 | Trade → |
| Constitution / Constitutional | 59% | 12¢ | 58¢ | — | $27 | Trade → |
| Drone | 91% | 74¢ | 90¢ | — | $17 | Trade → |
| Fake News | 1% | 2¢ | 74¢ | — | $12 | Trade → |
| Submarine | 65% | 55¢ | 65¢ | — | $7 | Trade → |
| Hezbollah | 0% | 2¢ | 60¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Civilian | 0% | 67¢ | 91¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| F-15 / F-15E | 0% | 11¢ | 65¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | 0% | 12¢ | 90¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Iraq | 0% | 12¢ | 70¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hormuz | 0% | 55¢ | 65¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Midnight Hammer | 0% | 1¢ | 70¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market records which specific statements or topics Pete Hegseth will utter during his 60 Minutes interview; it matters because specific quotes can drive news cycles, political messaging, and how audiences interpret the segment.
Pete Hegseth is a conservative commentator and former military officer who has been a frequent presence in political media; a 60 Minutes interview often draws broad viewership and can produce widely circulated soundbites. Historically, high-profile interviews on that program have led to immediate public reaction, follow-up reporting, and scrutiny of any novel or controversial claims.
Market odds aggregate trader expectations about which listed lines or topics will be spoken and update as new information (promos, leaks, scheduling) arrives; interpret them as a dynamic measure of consensus rather than a definitive outcome until the interview is verified and settled.
Settlement typically waits for the verifiable record identified in the market rules—usually the official broadcast or an authorized transcript—so trades remain live until the operator announces closure and uses the specified evidence to adjudicate outcomes.
Settlement depends on the market’s defined adjudication standard; some outcomes require exact phrasing while others accept paraphrase. Traders should consult the market description for whether the official aired audio/video or a published transcript will be the controlling source.
Yes—if the settled evidence is the aired segment or official transcript, only what appears in that record will typically count. Unedited footage or off-air remarks usually do not change outcomes unless the market explicitly allows alternate evidence.
Based on his public record, expect potential discussion of national security and military experience, commentary on media or political controversies, immigration and border issues, and any recent high-profile statements or disputes that prompted the interview.
Watch official promos and social clips from 60 Minutes, pre-interview social media posts or statements from Hegseth, press releases or previews from CBS, last-minute news that could change the interview’s focus, and any leaks or confirmations about the final air date and format.