| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Epic Fury | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $113K | Trade → |
| America First | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $112K | Trade → |
| Israel / Israeli | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $108K | Trade → |
| Mog / Mogged / Mogging | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $86K | Trade → |
| Khamenei / Son | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $74K | Trade → |
| Hormuz | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $60K | Trade → |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $54K | Trade → |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $54K | Trade → |
| Cartel | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $51K | Trade → |
| Event does not qualify | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $41K | Trade → |
| Iran | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $38K | Trade → |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $33K | Trade → |
| Gas / Gasoline | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $32K | Trade → |
| Radical Left | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $32K | Trade → |
| Cuba | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $28K | Trade → |
| American Dream | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $27K | Trade → |
| Nuclear | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $26K | Trade → |
| SAVE Act / Save America Act | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $26K | Trade → |
| Midnight Hammer | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $26K | Trade → |
| Biden | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $24K | Trade → |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $24K | Trade → |
| ID / Identification | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $23K | Trade → |
| China | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $23K | Trade → |
| Woke / DEI | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $22K | Trade → |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $22K | Trade → |
| Tariff | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $22K | Trade → |
| BIBI / Netanyahu | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| Filibuster | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| Hottest | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $20K | Trade → |
| Oil | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $20K | Trade → |
| Kurd / Kurdish | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
| Supreme Court | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
| Eight War | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
| Fake News | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| Democrat | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| Big Beautiful Bill | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
This market trades on whether former President Donald Trump will be mentioned during the Republican Members Issues Conference; mentions are a signal of his salience in intra-party messaging and can shape short-term political narratives.
The Republican Members Issues Conference is a party gathering where Republican elected officials, staff, and aligned speakers discuss policy priorities, messaging, and strategy; agendas typically include panels, speeches, and Q&A sessions. References to Trump at these events have historically conveyed alignment, critique, or strategic positioning within the party and often depend on speaker selection and contemporaneous events.
Market odds aggregate traders' expectations about mention outcomes given current public information and move as new facts emerge (e.g., speaker lists, agenda changes, breaking news). Use odds as a real-time summary of market sentiment, not as a fixed prediction.
The market's close date is listed as TBD; resolution will follow the event contract on KALSHI. Typically, a 'mention' is defined by the contract as a spoken or on-stage reference to Trump during official conference sessions as captured by official transcripts or publicly available video, but final resolution criteria are set in the market description.
The 28 outcomes likely correspond to specific categories such as counts, timing windows, or alternative mention scenarios used by the market creator. Consult the market page to see the exact mapping between outcome labels and the underlying mention definitions.
Organizers, keynote speakers, committee chairs, high-profile members, and scheduled panelists—especially those closely aligned with or opposed to Trump—are the primary drivers, since their prepared remarks and responses in Q&A are where mentions typically occur.
Breaking news can change incentives for speakers and shift market expectations rapidly; traders typically incorporate such developments by reassessing how likely panelists are to reference Trump and adjusting positions accordingly.
Most markets resolve based on public, official conference content (speeches, panels, livestreams, or official transcripts); off-stage private remarks or leaked private messages generally do not count unless the market's resolution criteria explicitly include them.