| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stupid Question | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $99K | Trade → |
| Biden | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $99K | Trade → |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $83K | Trade → |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $75K | Trade → |
| Hormuz | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $74K | Trade → |
| Tariff | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $74K | Trade → |
| Radical Left | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $69K | Trade → |
| Affordable / Affordability | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $67K | Trade → |
| Epstein | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $64K | Trade → |
| Ukraine | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $53K | Trade → |
| Stock Market | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $51K | Trade → |
| Terrorist / Narcoterrorist | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $49K | Trade → |
| China | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $48K | Trade → |
| FBI | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $44K | Trade → |
| Illegal Alien | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $43K | Trade → |
| Israel | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $43K | Trade → |
| Border | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $43K | Trade → |
| Congress / Congressional | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $42K | Trade → |
| Election | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $42K | Trade → |
| ICE / National Guard | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $39K | Trade → |
| Olympic / Olympics | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $38K | Trade → |
| Iran | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $33K | Trade → |
| Supreme Court | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $31K | Trade → |
| Epic Fury | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $28K | Trade → |
| Home / Housing | 99% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $27K | Trade → |
| Credit | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $23K | Trade → |
| TrumpRX / TrumpRX.gov | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| Healthcare | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| Nuclear | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
This market asks which of 26 specific lines or topical statements Karoline Leavitt will utter in her next press briefing. It matters because her wording can shape media coverage and signal administration priorities to stakeholders.
Press briefings are routine opportunities for official spokespeople to present talking points, respond to reporters, and react to breaking developments; outcomes in this market are drawn from likely lines or themes she might use. Historical briefings show a mix of repeated messaging and reactive answers when unexpected events arise, so both prepared scripts and real-time developments matter.
Market prices aggregate traders' expectations about which specific quoted lines or topics she will use and update as new information appears. They indicate collective belief about outcomes but do not guarantee what will be said.
It refers to the next publicly available, on-the-record briefing or press appearance in which Karoline Leavitt speaks in an official capacity; private or off-the-record remarks are not included.
Any on-the-record utterance during that single briefing can be evaluated against the listed outcomes; the specific matching process depends on the outcome wording and the market's adjudication rules.
Yes—follow-up answers are part of the same briefing and are eligible to match outcomes if their content corresponds to one of the listed options.
Whether a paraphrase or partial quote qualifies depends on the exact wording and the event's matching criteria; generally, matches require substantially similar meaning or phrasing as defined in the outcome descriptions.
Traders use transcripts and prior lines to anticipate likely phrasing; repeated or entrenched talking points increase the chance that similar outcomes will appear in the next briefing.