| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $142K | Trade → |
| Stupid Question | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $81K | Trade → |
| Border | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $73K | Trade → |
| ICE / National Guard | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $49K | Trade → |
| Stock Market | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $49K | Trade → |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $49K | Trade → |
| DHS / Homeland | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $48K | Trade → |
| China | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $46K | Trade → |
| Radical Left | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $46K | Trade → |
| FBI | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $44K | Trade → |
| Tomahawk | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $44K | Trade → |
| Schumer | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $39K | Trade → |
| Hormuz | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $38K | Trade → |
| Ukraine | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $36K | Trade → |
| Iran | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $35K | Trade → |
| Epic Fury | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $32K | Trade → |
| Kristi / Noem | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $31K | Trade → |
| Epstein | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $30K | Trade → |
| Healthcare | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $30K | Trade → |
| Biden | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $28K | Trade → |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $27K | Trade → |
| Nuclear | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $27K | Trade → |
| Tariff | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $26K | Trade → |
| Illegal Alien | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $25K | Trade → |
| Election | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $23K | Trade → |
| Navy | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $22K | Trade → |
| Affordable / Affordability | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| Canada / Canadian | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| Credit | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
| Hezbollah | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
| Terrorist / Narcoterrorist | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
| Supreme Court | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| Home / Housing | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| Save Act / Save America Act | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| Congress / Congressional | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| ID / Identification | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| World Cup | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
This market asks which of 28 defined statements or themes Karoline Leavitt will make in her next press briefing; it matters because traders use it to gauge how a high-profile spokesperson frames issues and responds to breaking events.
Karoline Leavitt is a political communications figure and frequent media spokesperson whose briefings typically address campaign messaging, rapid response to news, or commentary on opponents and policy. Her remarks are shaped by the campaign or organization she represents, the current news cycle, and any strategic communications decisions made shortly before a briefing.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders and update as new information arrives; interpret them as a real-time, crowd-sourced signal about which line of messaging participants expect, not as guarantees of what will be said.
The market lists 28 defined outcomes that cover specific lines, topics, or themes she might say (e.g., direct policy claim, attack on an opponent, fundraising appeal, pivot to unrelated topic). Consult the event page for the exact outcome text and settlement definitions before trading.
The listing shows the close time as TBD; platform rules typically define whether a market closes at the start of an event, at a scheduled time, or upon publication of an official transcript—check the event page for the official close condition and any updates.
Settlement usually relies on an official transcript or video of the briefing from the office holding it and may reference major news outlets if needed; the platform’s settlement rules explain which sources are authoritative and how conflicts are resolved.
Settlement depends on the precise outcome definitions on the event page; if wording overlaps, the platform applies its adjudication criteria (often prioritizing exact matches to official text or predefined rules) — review those criteria in advance.
Immediate drivers include live video or transcripts, unexpected lines or corrections during the briefing, pre-briefing leaks or talking points, and rapid social media amplification or clarifications from the spokesperson’s office.