| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Event does not qualify | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Biden | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Trump | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hottest | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tariff | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| China | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Oil | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Iran | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Democrat | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Diesel | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Fertilizer | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Windmill | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Soybean | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Water | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Supreme Court | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nuclear | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Highest Inflation | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Green New Scam | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Big Beautiful Bill | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Beef | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Egg | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Fraud | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Invested / Investment | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which topics or specific phrases former President Trump will mention during a planned set of remarks to farmers. It matters because those remarks can signal policy priorities, campaign messaging to rural voters, and potential impacts on agricultural markets.
Trump has historically emphasized trade, farm subsidies, biofuels (ethanol), crop insurance, disaster aid, and criticism of political opponents when speaking to agricultural audiences. Current drivers include commodity prices, recent weather-related crop losses, ongoing trade negotiations, and any near-term policy proposals affecting rural economies.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation about which topics or words will appear in the delivered remarks and update as new information arrives; they are not guarantees of future policy action. Resolution typically depends on whether specified words or topics appear in the official, recorded remarks according to the market's rule set.
Resolution timing is determined by the market rules: outcomes are usually adjudicated after the public, recorded remarks or an official transcript is available and reviewers can verify whether listed words or topics were mentioned.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific topic or phrase. A valid mention typically requires the word or concept to appear in the spoken remarks or official transcript in the form specified by the market rules; paraphrases may or may not qualify depending on those rules.
Settlement generally relies on the official, recorded remarks and published transcripts, supplemented by reputable broadcast recordings or press pool transcripts as defined by the market operator's resolution guidelines.
Look at past emphases—trade policy, subsidies, biofuels, disaster aid, and campaign attacks—as indicators of likely topics, but remember context-specific events (current farm stressors, recent policy moves) can shift the focus.
Late-breaking developments like new trade news, domestic farm disasters, policy announcements, high-profile endorsements or guest appearances, and shifts in the event format or time can all alter the speech content shortly before or during delivery.