| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transgender | 75% | 75¢ | 76¢ | — | $85K | Trade → |
| Hormuz | 18% | 17¢ | 18¢ | — | $83K | Trade → |
| Mog / Mogged / Mogging | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $60K | Trade → |
| Event does not qualify | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $56K | Trade → |
| Israel / Israeli | 37% | 36¢ | 37¢ | — | $54K | Trade → |
| Iran | 95% | 94¢ | 95¢ | — | $39K | Trade → |
| Mojtaba / Khamenei | 8% | 7¢ | 8¢ | — | $38K | Trade → |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $37K | Trade → |
| Epic Fury | 72% | 71¢ | 72¢ | — | $31K | Trade → |
| Sleepy Joe | 73% | 72¢ | 73¢ | — | $30K | Trade → |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | 91% | 90¢ | 91¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| Kurd / Kurdish | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| Democrat | 97% | 97¢ | 98¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
| Midnight Hammer | 58% | 59¢ | 61¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
| Eight War | 30% | 29¢ | 30¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
| Woke / DEI | 18% | 17¢ | 18¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 52% | 50¢ | 51¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| SAVE Act / Save America Act | 94% | 93¢ | 94¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | 44% | 43¢ | 44¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| Hottest | 87% | 87¢ | 88¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| Cuba | 20% | 19¢ | 20¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| Fake News | 84% | 81¢ | 83¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| Thomas / Massie | 82% | 81¢ | 82¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| China | 78% | 78¢ | 81¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| American Dream | 76% | 76¢ | 77¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| ID / Identification | 89% | 89¢ | 91¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| America First | 71% | 71¢ | 72¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | 67% | 67¢ | 68¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| Supreme Court | 65% | 63¢ | 65¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| Epstein | 4% | 4¢ | 5¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| Gas / Gasoline | 90% | 89¢ | 90¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| November 5 | 62% | 58¢ | 61¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| Tariff | 90% | 90¢ | 92¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| Radical Left | 83% | 83¢ | 86¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| Coal | 63% | 63¢ | 64¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| Nuclear | 87% | 87¢ | 89¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| National Security | 26% | 26¢ | 27¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| Highest Inflation | 45% | 45¢ | 46¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| Oil | 92% | 92¢ | 93¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement | 87% | 89¢ | 90¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Space Force | 22% | 19¢ | 22¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| No No No | 53% | 51¢ | 53¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Windmill | 30% | 30¢ | 31¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Gulf of America | 12% | 11¢ | 14¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks whether former President Trump will deliver public remarks in the state of Kentucky. It matters because in-person appearances reflect campaign priorities, can drive local media coverage, and influence grassroots organizing and fundraising in that state.
Trump has frequently made on-the-road appearances since leaving office; visits to individual states are used to mobilize supporters, endorse allies, and respond to unfolding political news. Kentucky is a politically relevant state for both national and state-level races, and a visit there can signal strategic emphasis or support for local candidates. The market separates possible outcomes into multiple event windows and scenarios to capture different timing and formats of remarks.
Market odds represent the aggregated expectations of traders based on available information and update as new scheduling, travel, or news developments occur. Treat them as real-time signals about whether an in-person speech in Kentucky is expected, not as definitive predictions.
Typically this means Trump physically present in Kentucky and speaking publicly to an audience or press; written statements, press releases, or remarks delivered from outside the state via teleconference usually do not qualify. Check the market’s resolution text for the definitive criteria.
Most resolution frameworks count any intentional, public spoken remarks delivered in-state, even if brief; however, whether a specific short comment qualifies is ultimately determined by the market’s stated resolution rules and available public evidence.
No — pre-recorded material played in the state or remote appearances from outside Kentucky typically do not meet the in-person delivery requirement; the speaker must be physically in Kentucky unless the market explicitly allows remote delivery.
Resolution depends on the market’s specified event window; the outcome is verified based on publicly available reporting, timestamps, and event documentation within that window. Because this market’s close time is listed as TBD, consult the market page for any updates on the resolution period.
Each appearance is an instance that could satisfy outcomes tied to an in-state delivery. If the market includes outcomes tied to specific dates, locations, or counts of appearances, each outcome is evaluated against its own condition rather than being negated by additional appearances.