| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Event does not qualify | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Biden (3+ times) | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Trump | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Kristi / Noem | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Body Camera / Body Cam | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| National Security | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Fentanyl | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Democrat | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Fraud | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Protest / Protester | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sanctuary | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of several defined statements, themes, or claims Tom Homan will make during his CPAC Fireside Chat; it matters because his remarks can influence conservative policy debate and media coverage. Traders use the market to express expectations about the specific content of his remarks rather than the event outcome in general.
Tom Homan is a former Immigration and Customs Enforcement official and a frequent commentator on immigration and border security; his past public statements and government service shape expectations about the topics he will emphasize. CPAC is a major annual conservative conference where speakers often repeat policy priorities, respond to current news, and tailor messages to a political audience, so recent developments in immigration, enforcement policy, or Republican politics could shape both his remarks and their reception.
Market odds reflect the collective assessment of traders about which listed outcome best describes what Homan will say and can shift as new information arrives (e.g., pre-event interviews, moderator topics, or breaking news). Read the market’s outcome definitions and resolution rules carefully: outcomes can be based on direct quotes, paraphrases, or topic categories as specified by the market contract.
Each outcome should be defined on the market page—typically as a specific quote, a paraphrased claim, or a topical category (e.g., references to border wall, asylum policy). Consult the contract text to see whether resolution requires exact wording, an equivalent paraphrase, or merely discussion of a topic.
Resolution timing is set by the market platform and usually occurs after the chat concludes and an authoritative transcript or recording is available; because the market lists 'Closes: TBD', check the platform’s rules or announcements for the official resolution window.
Resolution typically relies on verifiable primary sources specified by the platform—official video, full transcripts, or reporting from designated reliable outlets—so review the contract’s accepted-source list to know which materials adjudicators will use.
That depends on the contract wording: some markets allow only a single winning outcome while others permit multiple outcomes or categorical overlaps; check the market’s resolution rules to see whether outcomes are mutually exclusive or if multiple can be true.
Watch pre-chat interviews, any released speaking notes or excerpts, CPAC program descriptions, recent news about immigration or Republican strategy, and statements from the moderator or CPAC organizers—any of these can shift which outcomes look most plausible before he speaks.