| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Event does not qualify | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Epstein | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Biden | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Corrupt / Corruption | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Trump | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Khanna / Massie | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Immigrant / Immigration | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Fraud | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ICE / DHS | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which of ten predefined statements or topics Todd Blanche will say during his CPAC fireside chat; it matters because the content of the remarks can influence media narratives and political conversations. Traders use the market to express and aggregate expectations about the speaker's likely remarks.
Todd Blanche is a public figure scheduled to speak in a moderated fireside-chat format at CPAC, a high-profile conservative conference where speakers often address policy, party strategy, and the news cycle. CPAC conversations are a mix of prepared remarks and unscripted interaction with moderators/audiences, so what gets said can be shaped in real time by questions and breaking news.
Market prices for each outcome reflect the crowd’s consensus about which specific statements or topics Blanche will utter; they update as new information (e.g., promotional teasers, moderator announcements, or breaking events) becomes available. Treat prices as a real-time signal rather than a definitive prediction—expect movement up to and during the chat.
The market close time is listed on the market page as TBD; outcomes will be settled after the event once an official transcript or video is available and market operators verify which predefined statements occurred.
Each outcome corresponds to explicit wording or narrowly defined topics shown on the market page; settlement hinges on whether Blanche uttered language that matches the precise outcome definitions used by the market.
The market operator (KALSHI) or its designated adjudication rules determine settlement criteria; typically a direct spoken reference or clear paraphrase that matches the outcome wording, verified via video/transcript, is required.
Any edits to outcomes would be handled by the market operator prior to market close and are typically announced on the market page; once trading begins and the market is live, outcome changes are uncommon and follow the platform’s modification rules.
Look at Blanche’s recent public statements, written commentary, and past appearances for recurring themes or positions; combine that with CPAC norms (audience priorities, host cues) and any current events that could prompt specific onstage comments.