| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daycare / Childcare | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $139K | Trade → |
| Democracy | 1% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $62K | Trade → |
| Autism / Autistic | 1% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $30K | Trade → |
| Biden | 1% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $26K | Trade → |
| YouTube / YouTuber | 1% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $24K | Trade → |
| Islamophobia | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| Whistleblower | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $20K | Trade → |
| Racist / Racism | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
| Billion | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
| Learing | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 99% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| ICE | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| Trump | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| Immigrant / Migrant | 99% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| Medicare / Medicaid | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| Healthcare | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
This market asks which specific statements Tim Walz will make during the Oversight Fraud hearing; the exact wording matters because it shapes legal exposures, media narratives, and political messaging.
Tim Walz, as a named participant in an Oversight Committee proceeding, may deliver a prepared statement and answer questions under oath; oversight hearings mix planned remarks with unscripted exchanges that can change the public record. Markets like this track the likelihood of different mentions or phrasing, using the hearing transcript, live testimony, and pre-hearing materials as inputs.
Market odds reflect the aggregated expectations of participants about which outcome (a specific mention or phrase) will appear on the official record; they update as new information arrives but are not guarantees of what will actually be said.
The market close time is listed as TBD; the platform or market creator will specify a closing time, often before or at the start of the hearing, so check the KALSHI market page for the official schedule and any updates.
Each outcome corresponds to pre-specified mention categories or exact-phrase buckets defined by the market creator; the market description on KALSHI lists the wording used for resolution, and final determination typically relies on the official transcript or hearing video.
Resolution authority rests with the market creator and platform rules; adjudication normally uses the official record (transcript/video) and any stated textual criteria, and the platform’s dispute or arbitration process governs contested cases.
Pre-hearing materials that move expectations include released opening statements, legal filings, public comments from Walz or his counsel, committee witness lists, and any new documents or leaks that alter the factual matrix the hearing addresses.
Ambiguities are resolved according to the market’s resolution criteria: some markets require exact phrasing, others allow reasonable paraphrase, and in disputed cases the platform’s adjudication process will examine the official record and apply the stated rules to decide which outcome, if any, is met.