| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G7 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| G20 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| United Nations | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| World Trade Organization | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| International Monetary Fund | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| World Bank Group | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| OECD | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Interpol | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| International Atomic Energy Agency | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Inter-American Development Bank | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which international agreement, organization, or commitment the U.S. will withdraw from during the Trump Administration. It matters because withdrawals can reshape U.S. foreign policy, trade relationships, and global institutions.
Presidential administrations sometimes pursue withdrawals from treaties, organizations, trade deals, or military commitments as a way to recalibrate U.S. obligations abroad. The Trump Administration has previously signaled and carried out high-profile withdrawals, making future actions a focal point for diplomats, markets, and allied governments. Outcomes depend on executive authority, statutory processes, and diplomatic context.
Market odds reflect the collective judgment of traders about which withdrawal is most likely given available information; they update as news, legal actions, and political signals arrive. Use the market as a real-time barometer of perceived likelihood rather than a deterministic forecast.
The event refers to any withdrawal that is officially announced and legally effective while the Trump Administration is in office; consult the market's settlement rules for precise cutoff times and the definition of 'effective' for each outcome.
What counts depends on the market's outcome definitions and settlement criteria: some outcomes require formal, completed withdrawals, while others may exclude mere negotiations or partial amendments—check the event's specific outcome wording and settlement FAQ.
Look to the event's official rules: they typically specify the types of official notices, treaty termination procedures, or statutory actions that qualify. Administrative announcements alone may not be sufficient if legal steps or effective dates are required.
Markets with multiple exclusive outcomes usually settle on the first qualifying withdrawal or on the specific outcome that matches the event wording; if multiple withdrawals could fit, the operator's settlement rules determine which outcome is declared the winner.
Monitor administration press briefings and executive orders, notices submitted to treaty depositaries, congressional actions or lawsuits, internal agency memos (State, Defense, Commerce), and rapid international reactions that could force or delay formal withdrawal steps.