| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 10% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Between 10% and 19.99% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Between 20% and 29.99% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Between 30% and 39.99% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Between 40% and 49.99% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Between 50% and 60% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 60% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This Kalshi market asks which tariff rate the United States will apply to imports from India on July 1; outcomes correspond to discrete tariff-rate levels. The result matters for exporters, importers, supply chains, and policymakers because tariff changes can quickly affect trade flows and prices.
U.S.–India trade relations have included episodic tariff actions, trade negotiations, and targeted measures (e.g., adjustments to preferential treatment or sectoral tariffs) that shape bilateral duties. Decisions on tariffs can come from the Executive Branch (USTR, presidential proclamations), Congress, or be driven by trade remedy processes and international disputes, and they interact with broader economic and geopolitical considerations.
Market prices reflect traders’ aggregated expectations about which rate will be in effect on the specified date; movements incorporate new information as it arrives. Use prices to gauge how the market interprets policy signals, but cross-check with official announcements and the contract’s settlement rules for final determination.
This market offers seven distinct outcomes; each outcome corresponds to a specific tariff-rate category that would be applied to imports from India on July 1. Refer to the contract page for the exact rate bands or labels associated with each outcome.
Settlement will rely on authoritative U.S. sources such as the U.S. Trade Representative, published presidential proclamations, Federal Register Notices, and U.S. Customs and Border Protection determinations; check the contract’s resolution criteria for the prioritized source.
No—this market resolves to the tariff rate that is in effect on the date specified (July 1). Changes announced with later effective dates do not alter the rate that applied on July 1 for settlement purposes.
Resolution will use the tariff rate actually in force on July 1 as published by the official source specified in the contract. If the published materials are ambiguous, the exchange’s resolution rules or arbitration procedures will govern final determination—consult the market rules for details.
Key movers include formal U.S. tariff proclamations, USTR investigations and determinations, major announcements from the White House or Department of Commerce, trade-enabling agreements with India, Congressional actions affecting trade policy, and rapid geopolitical events that prompt emergency trade measures.