| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 10% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Between 10% and 19.99% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Between 20% and 29.99% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Between 30% and 39.99% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Between 40% and 49.99% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Between 50% and 60% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 60% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which US tariff rate on imports from China will be in effect on July 1; the outcome matters because tariff levels influence trade costs, supply chains, and political relations between the two countries.
Since 2018 the United States has used a mix of broad tariff designations, targeted exclusions, and periodic reviews to impose or adjust duties on Chinese goods, and those rates have changed in response to negotiations, legal challenges, and administrative actions. Decisions by the White House, the U.S. Trade Representative, federal agencies, or Congress — as well as bilateral talks or geopolitical events — can change tariff levels before the settlement date.
Market prices reflect traders' collective expectations about which discrete tariff band will be legally in force on July 1 and will update as new public information arrives. Use these prices as a real‑time indicator of market sentiment, while also monitoring official government notices for definitive changes.
Settlement is based on the tariff rate that is legally in effect on July 1 as reflected in official U.S. government publications and the market's stated settlement rules; public notices from USTR, Customs, or the Federal Register are the primary authoritative sources.
The President and the U.S. Trade Representative can issue or modify tariffs and proclamations, federal agencies can publish implementation guidance or exclusions, Congress can pass legislation affecting tariffs, and courts can issue rulings that affect enforcement.
Multiple outcomes partition possible tariff levels into distinct, mutually exclusive bands so traders can express expectations about specific ranges; the set of outcomes reflects the range of plausible policy states the market creator deemed relevant.
Key movers include official tariff proclamations or Federal Register notices, USTR press releases, White House statements on trade, major developments in bilateral talks, Congressional hearings or bills, and sudden geopolitical events between the U.S. and China.
Historical episodes show that tariff policy can change rapidly in response to negotiations, domestic politics, and economic conditions; use past patterns to understand which levers policymakers have used (e.g., broad proclamation, targeted exclusions, temporary relief) but treat each round of policy as context‑dependent.