| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 10% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Between 10% and 19.99% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Between 20% and 29.99% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Between 30% and 39.99% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Between 40% and 49.99% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Between 50% and 60% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 60% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the U.S. tariff rate applied to imports from Canada will be on July 1. Outcomes matter because changes to tariff policy affect cross‑border trade costs, supply chains, prices for consumers and producers, and U.S.–Canada political and economic relations.
Historically, U.S.–Canada trade has operated under low tariff barriers and rules set by agreements like USMCA and the WTO, but episodic measures (for example targeted steel and aluminum duties in recent years) show tariffs can change quickly in response to political or national‑security claims. Tariff adjustments can be implemented by the executive branch (Presidential proclamations, USTR actions) or result from trade remedy processes, and they may target specific product lines rather than a uniform headline rate.
Prediction market prices aggregate participant expectations about which listed outcome will be true at resolution time; they are signals about perceived likelihoods, not guarantees. Always cross‑check market outcomes against the market’s official resolution criteria and primary legal sources (Federal Register, USTR, CBP) before drawing conclusions.
The event’s resolution depends on the market’s specific definition—e.g., a headline statutory rate, an applied ad‑valorem average, or the rate for specified product categories. Check the market's description and rulebook to see which metric and sources are used to determine the tariff rate on July 1.
Tariff changes can come from the President (via proclamation), actions by the U.S. Trade Representative, trade‑remedy investigations (Sections 201/232/301), or congressional legislation; implementation and enforcement are handled by U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
Official changes are typically announced via Presidential proclamations, USTR press releases, and published in the Federal Register; CBP issues guidance and tariff classifications needed for enforcement. Those documents are the primary sources markets use for resolution.
Resolution timing and cutoffs are governed by the market’s rules; most markets use the legally effective tariff rate on the specified date/time and rely on official publications. Review the event’s resolution policy for treatment of late or retroactive announcements and tie‑break rules.
Relevant precedents include targeted U.S. duties on Canadian steel and aluminum and other product‑specific measures imposed or lifted in recent years, plus trade remedies and retaliatory tariffs. These show policymakers often act selectively and that political and security rationales can drive rapid changes.