| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Move | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Snake | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Betray / Betrayed / Betrayal | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Alliance | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Threat | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Strategy / Strategic | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ocean | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Relationship | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Shelter | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Million | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Target | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Clue | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Blood / Bloody | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Loyal / Loyalty | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Drama | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bond / Bonded / Bonding | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which specific lines, phrases, or topics contestants will utter during Survivor Episode 4 and aggregates crowd expectations about the episode's spoken content. It matters because it captures perceptions about editing choices, airtime allocation, and narrative focus that drive how the season is framed.
Survivor is a heavily edited reality-competition show where producers select confessionals, camp talk, and challenge footage to craft storylines; early episodes (including Episode 4) often solidify alliances and narrative threads. Past seasons show that who speaks and what they say is shaped by on-screen conflict, recent challenge outcomes, and producers' storytelling priorities.
Market odds reflect the collective expectation of which predefined mentions will appear in the episode based on available information and are updated as new signals arrive. They represent consensus views, not guarantees, and can shift quickly around air time and after any public spoilers.
The market's official close time is set on the trading platform (currently listed as TBD); typically such markets close shortly before the episode airs or when the outcome becomes verifiable—check the market page for the final close time.
A 'mention' generally includes any spoken words by contestants that are audible in the episode's official broadcast or streaming version, including confessionals and on-camera camp dialogue; off-screen or off-air remarks and producer commentary are normally excluded—refer to the market's outcome definitions for precise rules.
Verification is based on the official aired/streamed episode as published by the network; if network corrections or official updates change the record, the platform will follow its adjudication rules to resolve outcomes.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific, pre-defined phrase, keyword, or topic provided in the market's outcome list; review those outcome labels and any accompanying definitions on the market page to understand what constitutes a match.
Key influences include established alliances or rifts shown in prior episodes, who has immunity or was targeted at the last tribal council, how contestants were portrayed (strategic vs. sympathetic), and any narrative threads producers are developing that invite follow-up comments.