What will Powell say during his April press conference?

The event page indicates the market closes at the time specified there; if the close is listed as TBD, check the event page for updates — many mention markets close shortly before or at the start of the press conference so outcomes can be determined from the official remarks.

Outcomes are resolved based on whether Powell utters the exact word(s) or discusses the listed topic during the April press conference as recorded in the official transcript or video; consult the event’s resolution criteria on the platform for precise rules about wording, synonyms, and adjudication.

Review past press conferences for recurring themes (inflation, labor market, policy outlook, risks) and for how Powell frames uncertainty and forward guidance; shifts in tone from prior meetings often predict which mentions become more or less likely.

Key items include recent CPI/PCE inflation readings, the monthly employment report, GDP and consumer-activity releases, the FOMC statement and minutes, and any speeches by regional Fed presidents — these shape the substance and tone of Powell’s remarks.

Prioritize mentions aligned with recent data and Fed messaging, focus on high-salience or policy-relevant terms, consider how specific wording is likely to be (broad topics versus rare phrases), and manage exposure by diversifying across related mentions or using small position sizes when liquidity or certainty is low.