| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Event does not qualify | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hormuz | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Oil | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Israel / Israeli | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Civilian / School | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| CIA | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Drone | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| America First | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ayatollah / Khamenei | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Democrat | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Fake News | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Trump (5+ times) | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hamas / Hezbollah | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nuclear | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Russia | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Rescue / Rescued | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks specific rhetoric used by Pete Hegseth during official press briefings concerning Iran. It serves as a gauge for market expectations regarding potential shifts in U.S. foreign policy or diplomatic posture.
Pete Hegseth, a prominent media figure and veteran, has historically advocated for a hawkish stance on Middle Eastern security and Iran. Given his influence and communication style, his choice of language in official settings is closely scrutinized by analysts, investors, and policymakers looking for signals on geopolitical stability. This market captures the precise framing he employs when addressing ongoing tensions or specific incidents involving Iran.
Participants should interpret these market outcomes as a crowd-sourced sentiment reflection of the likelihood that Hegseth will prioritize specific vocabulary or themes in his address.
A mention is defined as the distinct utterance of the specified term or concept by Pete Hegseth during the duration of the official press briefing.
The briefing is defined as any official press conference or Q&A session where Pete Hegseth is the primary speaker addressing matters of national security related to Iran.
Typically, this market focuses on verbal communication during the briefing; refer to the specific contract rules regarding whether prepared remarks count as spoken content.
If the event is rescheduled, the market will usually persist until the briefing occurs, unless the contract specifies a hard deadline for the expiration of the event.
The mentions must occur within the official duration of the scheduled briefing event, excluding informal remarks made before or after the event officially concludes.