| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrorist / Terrorism | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Event does not qualify | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Civilian / School | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hormuz | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Fake News | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Israel / Israeli | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Trump (5+ times) | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hamas / Hezbollah | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Russia | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tomahawk | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| America First | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nuclear | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Drone | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ayatollah / Khamenei | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Oil | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Democrat | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which specific words, phrases, or topics Pete Hegseth will utter during his upcoming press conference; it matters because the exact language used can indicate his messaging priorities and shape media coverage.
Pete Hegseth is a media personality and commentator with a track record of focusing on national security, immigration, and conservative political themes; his press conferences often mix prepared remarks with responses to live questions. Outcomes in this market capture discrete verbal content from that event rather than broader policy positions.
Market prices aggregate traders' expectations about which specific mentions will occur during the press conference; they move as new information appears (e.g., previews, leaks, or live reporting) and should be read as a consensus signal about likely wording, not as a statement of fact until the event is adjudicated.
The adjudication window is the official duration of the press conference as defined on the event page; only words spoken during that official start-to-end period (including formal remarks and answers to questions) will be considered.
A 'mention' refers to the appearance of the specific word, phrase, or topic listed as an outcome; adjudicators will verify occurrences using primary evidence such as the official video/audio feed or a reliable transcript and will follow the event's stated rules on exact-match versus close paraphrase.
For this market, repeated use of the same phrase typically does not change the outcome beyond confirming that the phrase occurred; only the presence or absence of the listed mention (or any frequency-based outcome if explicitly offered) determines adjudication.
The market operator or designated adjudicator named on the event page is responsible; they will rely on verifiable primary sources such as official video, audio, or transcripts and will apply the event's adjudication rules and any published appeal procedures.
Leaked talking points and previews are informative signals that can change expectations, but they do not determine the official outcome—only what is actually said during the press conference, as verified by primary sources, will be adjudicated.