| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obliterated / Obliteration | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $85K | Trade → |
| Hormuz | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $82K | Trade → |
| Ayatollah / Khamenei | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $66K | Trade → |
| Oil | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $66K | Trade → |
| Hezbollah | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $46K | Trade → |
| Constitution / Constitutional | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $32K | Trade → |
| Midnight Hammer | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
| Democrat | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| Submarine | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| Fake News | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| America First | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| Nuclear | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| Civilian | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Drone | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Iraq | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Israel / Israeli | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Trump | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which specific phrases, topics, or statements Pete Hegseth will utter during a named press conference; it matters because his words can shape media coverage and reactions from political and policy audiences.
Pete Hegseth is a public figure and commentator whose press conferences typically address current political, organizational, or media-related topics. Outcomes in this market map to discrete spoken mentions, so past patterns of prepared talking points, media framing, and responses to live questions are relevant background.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of traders and update as new information arrives; they should be interpreted as real-time signals about which listed mentions traders expect to hear rather than fixed predictions.
Resolution generally occurs after the press conference concludes and the market operator confirms the official public record (video, transcript, or statement); consult the market page for the event-specific resolution trigger and any adjudication rules.
A valid mention usually requires the phrase or topic to be spoken aloud or clearly referenced during the press conference; whether paraphrases or similar wording qualify depends on the exact outcome wording and the platform's resolution guidelines, so review the outcome definitions on the event page.
That depends on the platform and the market operator's rules: some markets lock outcomes once trading begins, while others permit additions or clarifications before resolution. Any changes or official notices will be posted on the market page for this event.
Compare the official video or transcript of the press conference to the exact wording of each outcome; if there's ambiguity, await the market operator's official resolution statement or adjudication note for this event.
Watch for breaking news stories related to the press conference topic, statements from allied or opposing figures, leaks of internal memos or talking points, scheduled guests or questioners, and any last-minute shifts in the organizer's messaging for this event.