| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2,000,000,000+ | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $5,000,000,000+ | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $8,000,000,000+ | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $10,000,000,000+ | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $12,000,000,000+ | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| $15,000,000,000+ | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks what OpenSea's fully diluted valuation (FDV) will be exactly one day after the token's public launch. It matters because FDV at launch is a widely used headline metric for market expectations about token supply, initial pricing, and investor appetite.
The market is hosted on KALSHI and offers six discrete outcome brackets for the FDV range one day after launch; total volume traded to date is $29,405 and the market close time is determined by the event rules. Historically, initial FDV readings for major crypto launches reflect a mix of the initial listing price, the announced total token supply, and short‑term trading dynamics; those components together produce sharp moves in the first 24 hours. Keep in mind that settlement depends on the specific price feed, timestamp, and supply definition named in the event rules.
Prediction market odds aggregate traders' assessments of future outcomes; use them as a real‑time gauge of market consensus rather than a guaranteed forecast. For this event, odds reflect participants' views on price, supply dynamics, and early liquidity at the one‑day snapshot.
It refers to the timestamp exactly 24 hours after the project's official public launch time as defined in the event description. The event rules specify the authoritative launch time, timezone, and the snapshot timestamp used to determine the settled FDV.
FDV (fully diluted valuation) is the market price per token multiplied by the total token supply specified by the project. The event will use the FDV definition and total supply figure named in the market's settlement rules or data source.
This market has six discrete outcome brackets; each outcome maps to a specific FDV range listed on the event page. Check the event interface to see the exact numeric brackets and how boundary values are handled for settlement.
Vesting and unlocks influence trader behavior and available circulating supply. FDV calculations typically use total supply regardless of locks, but large near‑term unlocks can push the market price down through selling pressure, changing the implied FDV at the 24‑hour snapshot.
The event rules name the authoritative price feed or source (for example, a specific exchange price, an aggregate oracle, or on‑chain contract data) and the methodology for taking the 24‑hour snapshot. Consult the market's settlement documentation on KALSHI for the exact data sources and dispute procedures.