| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Event does not qualify | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Fraud | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Learing | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Gavin / Newsom | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Billion | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Trump | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Biden | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Daycare | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Democrat | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Taxpayer | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| California | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of a set of predefined mentions Nick Shirley will make during his CPAC speech and which specific phrasing or topics he will use. It matters because the exact words deployed at CPAC can shape media coverage, influence conservative messaging, and signal strategic priorities.
CPAC is a high-profile conservative conference where speakers test messaging, policy priorities, and rhetorical framing for activists, donors, and media. A single line or invocation at CPAC can be rapidly amplified across social platforms and news outlets, so observers watch closely for new themes or shifts in emphasis. The market consolidates trader expectations about which mentions will actually occur during Shirley’s allotted remarks.
Market odds represent the aggregate expectations of traders about which outcome will best match Shirley’s words; they move as new information becomes available. Use them as a real-time gauge of consensus rather than a guarantee, and expect odds to change around the speech, transcript releases, and media reporting.
Check the official CPAC schedule for the session time; the market’s settlement window will reference the speech start and end as defined by the platform’s rules. Timing matters because trades made before the speech reflect pre-speech expectations, while trades during or immediately after the speech reflect live reporting and transcript releases.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific mention, phrase, or topical reference defined by the market creator—some may be exact-phrase outcomes and others broader topical mentions. Review the market’s outcome descriptions on the platform to see the exact wording used to adjudicate each outcome.
Resolution will rely on the platform’s stated adjudication standard, typically using official video, livestream, or transcript evidence; some markets require exact wording while others accept reasonable paraphrase per the rules. If language is ambiguous, the platform’s dispute and resolution procedures will govern the final determination.
Platform policies dictate whether outcomes can be modified; many prediction markets fix outcomes at launch and require clear communication and a formal process for any changes. Consult the platform’s rulebook and announcement feed for any alterations and the remedies offered to traders in such cases.
Authoritative sources typically include the official CPAC livestream and archive video, the event transcript if provided, and widely available recordings from reputable outlets. The market will state which sources are designated for resolution; if not, default dispute guidelines specify acceptable evidence and how to submit challenges.