| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Subscribe | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $128K | Trade → |
| Feastable | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| Insane | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| Contestant | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| Prize | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| Beast | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| Million | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| Money | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| Time | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| Car | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| Challenge | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Water | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Win | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Saudi Arabia | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Billion | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks which of several predefined phrases MrBeast will say in the audio of his next YouTube video; it matters because it aggregates collective expectations about his upcoming content, sponsors, and messaging. Market prices act as a continuously updated summary of public information and signals about likely video content.
Jimmy "MrBeast" Donaldson is a high-profile creator known for large-scale challenges, giveaways, collaborations, and frequent uploads across multiple channels. The event on KALSHI lists 15 mutually exclusive outcomes and has seen notable trading volume; the market closes when the exchange sets a settlement time (currently TBD). MrBeast's frequent format changes, sponsorship deals, and cross-channel posting mean phrasing can shift rapidly based on production choices or last-minute edits.
Market odds reflect the crowd's current consensus about which phrase he will speak and update as new information (teasers, social posts, leak, sponsor announcements, upload timing) becomes available. Interpret odds as a real-time signal, not a guarantee, and always check the contract text for settlement rules.
Settlement depends on the contract language posted by the exchange; if the contract specifies a channel, that channel's next public upload is used. Unless the contract explicitly includes Shorts, livestreams, or community posts, most markets treat the next standard uploaded video on the defined channel as the relevant item. Always check KALSHI's contract text for the definitive definition.
Most markets require the phrase to be audibly spoken by MrBeast in the video's main audio track; non-spoken appearances (title, thumbnail, comments) typically do not satisfy the outcome. Autogenerated captions can be used as a verification tool, but audible speech is the primary evidence under usual settlement procedures—refer to the exchange's settlement rules for specifics.
No—if the market specifically asks what MrBeast will say, only words spoken by MrBeast (Jimmy Donaldson) count. Statements by collaborators, narrators, or text overlays do not satisfy outcomes unless the contract explicitly allows them.
Exchanges have rules for post-upload edits and disputes; some use the version available at a specific cutoff time, others investigate edits when a dispute is raised. Because policies vary, consult KALSHI's settlement and dispute procedures to understand how post-upload modifications are treated for this market.
Review recent upload formats, recurring themes (large giveaways, challenge mechanics, sponsor read styles), social-media teasers, and the frequency with which he uses particular catchphrases or mentions collaborators. Historical patterns are informative but can be upended by new sponsors, format shifts, or one-off stunts, so combine past behavior with current signals (teasers, announcements, production credits).