| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Election | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Homan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ China | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Kristi / Noem | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mexico / Mexican | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ Biden | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Fentanyl | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Iran | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| America First | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Renee / Pretti | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Fraud | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Deport / Deportation | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mask / Masked | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Event does not qualify | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Shutdown / Shut Down | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
This market asks which specific statement or category of remarks Markwayne Mullin will make during his Department of Homeland Security confirmation hearing; outcomes matter because his words can reveal policy priorities and influence the Senate's confirmation dynamics and public reaction.
Markwayne Mullin, a sitting member of Congress nominated to lead DHS, will face a formal Senate confirmation hearing where senators question nominees about homeland security priorities, past conduct, and policy positions. Confirmation hearings historically focus on topics such as border security, immigration enforcement, cyber threats, disaster response, and department management, and nominees’ answers are closely scrutinized by media, advocacy groups, and Senate offices.
Prediction market prices reflect traders’ collective assessments of which statements he is likely to make based on available information; interpret movements as shifting assessments driven by new information (e.g., prep, leaks, current events) rather than fixed forecasts.
The hearing date and times are determined by the Senate committee scheduling the confirmation; the market will be sensitive to announced hearing dates and typically updates as the hearing approaches—check the market page and the Senate committee calendar for official timing.
Most event outcomes are adjudicated from the official, on-the-record hearing record: opening statements, answers during the public Q&A, and anything captured in the official transcript or video feed; private or off-the-record remarks are not included unless the market’s specific rules state otherwise.
Outcome adjudication relies on publicly available hearing records such as the committee’s official transcript, C-SPAN video, and committee press materials; consult the market’s adjudication rules for which of these sources it will use as authoritative.
The committee chair, ranking member, and influential senators set the agenda through their lines of questioning—targeted or adversarial questioning on specific topics makes particular on-the-record statements more likely, while friendly questioning may elicit policy emphasis or reassurances.
Yes; his prior floor speeches, public comments, voting record, and press interviews provide strong signals about likely framing and policy positions, though nominees sometimes calibrate testimony for confirmation contexts, so past remarks are informative but not definitive.