| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Housing | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $48K | Trade → |
| Trump / President | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $37K | Trade → |
| FBI | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| NYPD | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| ICE / DHS | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| IED | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| Iran / Iranian | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| Economy / Economic | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| Student | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Five Borough | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Governor / Hochul | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Teacher | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks which predefined mention or topic will best describe what Mamdani says in his next public announcement. It matters because the wording and focus of that announcement can affect public perception, markets, or policy discussions tied to Mamdani's role.
Mamdani is a public figure whose prior statements and announcements have varied in timing, channel, and substance; market participants typically draw on that history to form expectations. Past patterns — such as whether announcements are prepared remarks, Q&A sessions, or brief social-media posts — shape how traders interpret upcoming messaging. Because the market's close is listed as TBD, participants should follow official channels and the market page for any updates on timing or resolution rules.
Market prices represent the collective judgment of traders about which outcome will occur and update as new information appears; they are an information signal, not a guarantee. Traders should treat prices as dynamic indicators that respond to leaks, scheduling changes, and evolving context.
Resolution depends on the exchange's stated sources and criteria on the market page; typically an official transcript, video recording, or the statement published on an official channel is used. If wording is ambiguous, the exchange's adjudication rules determine the outcome.
The market's resolution protocol usually specifies whether only the first qualifying announcement after listing counts or whether a particular window/platform is authoritative; consult the market page for that rule. If multiple items create ambiguity, the exchange will apply its published tie-breaking or adjudication procedures.
If timing slips, the market may remain open until the announcement occurs, be paused, or be canceled and refunded depending on the exchange's rules and the expected delay length; watch official market updates for any administrative actions.
Traders typically examine past topics, phrasing, and contexts to infer likely themes or mentions, while adjusting for new developments that could change incentives or messaging strategies. Historical patterns are informative but not determinative when circumstances have changed.
The exchange (market creator) sets the outcome list when the market is listed; changes after listing are rare and subject to the exchange's governance. Any material change would be publicly posted and may trigger refunds or relisting if necessary.