| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE / DHS | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $24K | Trade → |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $24K | Trade → |
| Economy / Economic | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
| Iran / Iranian | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| Governor / Hochul | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| Cleanup / Clean Up | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| Budget / Deficit | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| Federal | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| Five Borough | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| Israel / Netanyahu | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| Housing | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Trump / President | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
This market asks which specific statement or type of remark Mamdani will make in his next public announcement; it matters because different possible statements can change public reaction, media coverage, and markets that follow. Traders use the market to express and aggregate expectations about the substance of the forthcoming statement.
The market sits in the 'Mentions' category and offers multiple discrete outcomes corresponding to different possible lines or claims Mamdani might make. Historical announcements, recent events involving Mamdani's office or organization, and ongoing legal, political, or operational developments provide the context that shapes what he might say next. Because the event closes TBD, timing can be influenced by breaking news, scheduled briefings, or strategic delays.
Prediction market prices reflect collective expectations about which outcome will match the actual utterance at resolution; interpret prices as a summary of crowd expectation rather than a certainty. Always check the market's official resolution criteria to understand how exact phrasing, paraphrase, or follow-up clarifications will be treated.
Resolution will rely on the market’s stated definition; in practice, an 'announcement' typically includes any public, attributable statement made by Mamdani in an identifiable format (live remarks, official press release, posted video/message) as specified by the market's rules. Check the event's resolution text for the precise boundaries (e.g., internal memos or anonymous leaks may be excluded).
The winning outcome is the one that best matches the content standard laid out in the market’s description and resolution criteria — often based on whether Mamdani explicitly uses particular words or makes a distinct claim. The exchange’s designated scorers or resolution process will apply the pre-published rules to the actual statement.
Whether paraphrases or clarifications count depends on the market’s resolution language. Some markets require exact phrasing, while others accept equivalent meaning or subsequent clarification. Review the event’s resolution rules to know how paraphrase and context are handled.
Resolution timing is set by the exchange’s procedures and the market’s rules; it may occur after official transcripts are published or after a short verification window to confirm the exact content. Look at the event page for expected resolution process and timing notes.
Key actors include Mamdani and his communications team, legal or policy advisors who vet statements, allied spokespeople or organizations that might preview content, reporters or outlets that could have advance information, and stakeholders likely to prompt or respond to particular lines in the announcement.