| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $91K | Trade → |
| Housing | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $22K | Trade → |
| Israel / Netanyahu | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| ICE / DHS | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| Federal | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| Five Borough | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| Cleanup / Clean Up | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| Trump / President | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Economy / Economic | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Governor / Hochul | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Education / School | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Columbia | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Teacher | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Tuition | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which of 15 predefined statements Mamdani will make in his next public announcement. It matters because the exact wording can change interpretations, market reactions, or policy expectations tied to his role and authority.
The contract tracks the next verifiable public remark attributed to Mamdani; traders price outcomes based on prior statements, the institutional context in which he speaks, and current events that might prompt particular messaging. Historical patterns of his announcements, the forum he uses (press conference, written statement, interview), and emerging news all shape expectations.
Market odds represent the aggregate, real‑time view of which of the 15 named outcomes traders expect to match his next announcement; they update as scheduling, leaks, or new information changes the perceived likelihood of each listed outcome.
Resolution relies on the market's formal terms: the first verifiable, attributable public statement by Mamdani in a qualifying forum (e.g., press release, live statement, recorded interview) as specified on the Kalshi event page; off‑the‑record or private communications are generally excluded—consult the event rules for the exact definition.
The 15 outcomes are the mutually exclusive phrasing categories listed on the event page; because precise wording determines resolution, view the Kalshi market page to read each outcome verbatim before trading.
The exchange uses the contract's resolution rules and objective matching criteria; if ambiguity remains, resolution may rely on posted transcripts, timestamps, and the platform's dispute process or arbitrator determinations—expect potential delays until a clear match is confirmed.
This specific event lists its close time as TBD. Once an announcement occurs, resolution timing depends on verification needs and ambiguity—some events resolve within minutes if the wording is clear, others may take hours or longer when adjudication is required. Monitor the event page for updates.
Watch official calendars and invitations for scheduled remarks, organization press releases, credible leaks, the topic of related meetings or reports, live feeds/transcripts during the event, and recent patterns in Mamdani's language and priorities; also review the exact outcome texts so you can judge how a likely statement would map to them.