| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Body Cam / Body Camera | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $92K | Trade → |
| Mask / Masked | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $73K | Trade → |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $67K | Trade → |
| Renee / Pretti | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $51K | Trade → |
| Homan | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $46K | Trade → |
| Fentanyl | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $24K | Trade → |
| Walz | 1% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $22K | Trade → |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $20K | Trade → |
| Election | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| Fraud | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| Sanctuary | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| Deport / Deportation | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| Biden | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| Democrat | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
This market asks which specific type of statement Kristi Noem will make during the House Oversight Committee hearing on Homeland Security. It matters because her remarks could shape political narratives about border policy, oversight findings, and party messaging.
Kristi Noem, the governor of South Dakota and a high-profile Republican figure, has been an active voice on immigration and DHS-related topics; congressional hearings have in the past amplified individual testimonies into broader political flashpoints. Oversight Committee hearings typically blend prefiled statements, direct questioning, and unscripted exchanges, so outcomes hinge on both prepared remarks and real-time interactions with committee members.
Market odds aggregate traders' expectations about which categorized statement Noem will make and update as new information arrives; they are best read as a real-time consensus signal rather than a definitive prediction. Use the market alongside direct sources — the hearing transcript, video, and official statements — to interpret movement and context.
The event page lists the close time as TBD; typically these markets close either at the hearing's official start time or when the market operator announces a final close—check the event page for real-time updates.
The outcomes enumerate distinct categories or exact phrasings the market operator has defined for what Noem might say (e.g., policy proposals, denials, accusations, calls for investigations, refusal to answer); consult the event's outcome list to see the exact wording and distinctions used.
Prepared opening remarks typically occur early and may fulfill ‘prepared statement’ outcomes, while committee questioning and later exchanges can generate different categorized responses; the timing of statements during the hearing determines which outcome applies.
Key influencers include the Oversight Committee chair and lead questioners, DHS witnesses or officials who testify, Noem’s legal advisors and party leaders, and any reporters or released documents that introduce new details during the hearing.
Monitor live video/transcript, official press releases, and committee exhibits; prepared remarks are often posted in advance or at the hearing start, while unscripted exchanges require quick assessment—use verified sources to reassess which outcome seems most consistent with Noem’s actual statements.