| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election | 99% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| Fraud | 99% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| Renee / Pretti | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| Sanctuary | 99% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | 1% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| Mask / Masked | 1% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| Save Act / Save America Act | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| Walz | 1% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| Fentanyl | 99% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| Biden | 99% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| National Security | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| Homan | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| Warrant | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Body Cam / Body Camera | 99% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Democrat | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Deport / Deportation | 99% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | 99% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which specific statement or topic Kristi Noem will utter during a Homeland Security hearing; it matters because her words can shape media narratives, committee focus, and subsequent political signaling.
Kristi Noem, the governor of South Dakota and a prominent national Republican figure, is participating in a Homeland Security hearing where members may question her on topics such as border policy, state-federal coordination, and national security priorities. The hearing context — agenda, witnesses, and topical news cycles — provides the backdrop that will constrain and shape what she is likely to say.
Market odds reflect how participants are pricing the relative likelihood of the discrete outcomes listed on the exchange; interpret them as a consensus of traders’ expectations, but remember they can change rapidly as new information (e.g., hearing agenda changes or live testimony) arrives.
Resolution timing depends on the exchange’s stated rules for this event; typically the market will be settled after the hearing concludes and after official transcripts or video are available to verify whether the resolved text matches an outcome. Check the market description or exchange rules for exact settlement triggers.
Each outcome is a separately worded statement or topical mention that Kristi Noem could make during the hearing; the exchange lists the full text of each outcome on the event page and that wording governs resolution, so consult that page for authoritative phrasing.
Key influencers include the committee chair and ranking member (their questions set the agenda), other senators who press follow-ups, witnesses or exhibits that introduce new facts, and staff who may advise her during breaks or before opening remarks.
Use past statements as indicators of her policy positions, rhetorical style, and recurring talking points, but account for context changes: a hearing’s subject matter, targeted audience, and any new evidence presented can prompt different or more narrowly tailored remarks.
Ambiguities are resolved according to the exchange’s resolution protocol, which typically relies on official transcripts or video and a strict reading of outcome wording; if language is unclear, the exchange may apply predefined adjudication rules or an arbitration process—refer to the market’s dispute and resolution policy for details.