| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deport / Deportation | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $55K | Trade → |
| Iran | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $27K | Trade → |
| National Security | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $22K | Trade → |
| Biden | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| Renee / Pretti | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| Fraud | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| Election | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Democrat | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Trump (3+ times) | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Mask / Masked | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Traffic / Trafficking | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Border | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $989 | Trade → |
This market asks which of 14 predefined statements or topical references Kristi Noem will make during a specific press conference; it matters because it converts expectations about her messaging into tradable information for observers and journalists.
Kristi Noem is a high‑profile American politician whose press conferences are often used to announce policy positions, respond to news, or shape public perception. Traders will look at her recent speeches, staffing and campaign activity, and any contemporaneous news to form expectations about what she will say.
Market prices aggregate traders' expectations about which of the 14 outcomes she will utter; they update as new information arrives and should be interpreted as collective belief signals rather than guarantees.
The closing time is not yet set by the exchange; until an official close time is published the market can remain open and subject to new information — traders should monitor the event page for an announced close to avoid last‑minute uncertainty.
Each outcome corresponds to a predefined phrase, topic, or type of statement listed on the event page; resolution relies on whether her spoken words reasonably match an outcome according to the exchange's resolution rules and designated source (for example, an official transcript or livestream).
The market will be resolved using the exchange's published resolution sources and procedures—commonly an official transcript, video of the press conference, or a named media feed—so check the event page for the specific source the exchange designates.
Past appearances provide useful patterns—topics she emphasizes, recurring phrases, or defensive vs. proactive tones—but they are only one input; traders should combine historical patterns with current context such as breaking news and the stated purpose of this particular press conference.
New developments include sudden news releases, legal filings, campaign decisions, a change in scheduled format (e.g., canceled Q&A), or unexpected questions from the press; any of these can shift her messaging between planning and delivery.