| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Event does not qualify | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Trump (3+ times) | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ID / Identification | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Border | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Noem / Homan | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Muslim | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ICE / DHS | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Deport / Deportation | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Democrat | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Big Tech | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Jesus | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which of several predefined statements Ken Paxton will make during the CPAC Dinner; it matters because his remarks can influence conservative messaging, donor sentiment, and media coverage.
Ken Paxton is a high-profile Texas official whose legal challenges and political positioning have kept him in national conservative discussions. CPAC dinners are a recurring venue for major conservative figures to deliver pointed remarks, and markets on specific lines of speech capture trader expectations about what he will emphasize.
Market prices reflect the consensus of traders at any moment and update as new information arrives; they should be read as a snapshot of market expectations, not as definitive statements of fact.
The market resolves to the outcome whose predefined wording best matches what Ken Paxton actually says during the CPAC Dinner, based on the platform’s official resolution criteria and source material such as transcripts or recordings.
The market close is listed as TBD; resolution will occur after the CPAC Dinner once the official transcript or recording is available and the platform applies its resolution rules.
The full list of the 11 predefined outcomes and their exact text is available on the market page on Kalshi; those exact wordings are what adjudicators will use for resolution.
Late developments can change what Paxton chooses to say and will therefore shift market expectations; however, resolution is based strictly on what is actually spoken at the dinner as captured in the official record.
Low or zero volume indicates limited liquidity and that prices may be driven by a small number of trades; such prices can be more volatile and less representative of broad information than markets with higher participation.