| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drone | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Defense / Defence | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Ceasefire | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Immigrant / Immigration | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Oil | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Ukraine | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Israel / Israeli | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Energy | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Nuclear | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| NATO | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Trump | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ✓ Iran | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| ✓ Reform | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
This market asks which specific line, claim, or topic Keir Starmer will utter during the next Prime Minister's Questions; it matters because PMQs are a high-profile moment that can shift media narratives and political momentum.
PMQs is the weekly parliamentary session where the Prime Minister answers questions from MPs; opposition leaders like Keir Starmer use it to press the government on policy, scandals, and performance. Historical patterns show Starmer alternates between targeted attacks, policy announcements, and attempts to demonstrate competence and leadership, depending on the political calendar and current events.
Market prices reflect traders' aggregated expectations about which specific remark or topic Starmer will make at PMQs; they are best read as a summary of visible signals (news, briefings, strategy) rather than a definitive prediction of verbatim wording.
Close timing is set by the platform; many markets close at or just before the scheduled start of PMQs, but you should check the market page for the official close time for this specific event.
Resolution typically uses the official parliamentary record, video of the session, and the exchange’s published rules to match Starmer’s words to the outcome descriptions; the exchange or a designated adjudicator makes the final determination per its resolution policy.
Yes — new statements from Starmer’s team, government announcements, or sudden events can alter the likely topics or lines he will use and therefore shift market expectations up until the market closes.
Resolution rules typically require selecting the single outcome that most closely matches the recorded wording and intent; if ambiguity exists, the exchange follows its dispute and clarification procedures to determine the correct outcome.
Markets reflect whatever is most likely to occur, whether scripted or spontaneous; traders factor in briefing materials and past behaviour to judge whether Starmer will use prepared lines or deviate in response to exchanges.