| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATO | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $22K | Trade → |
| Israel / Israeli | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
| Trump | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| Immigrant / Immigration | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| Drone | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| Ukraine | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| Nuclear | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| Iran | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| Ceasefire | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| Energy | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| Reform | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| Defense / Defence | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks which words, phrases or topics Keir Starmer will say during the next Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs). It matters because PMQs shape the immediate political narrative and signal opposition priorities to media, voters, and markets.
Prime Minister's Questions is a weekly, high‑profile Commons session where the opposition leader directly questions the prime minister; remarks made there receive heavy national coverage. The content Starmer chooses — whether policy critique, a targeted accusation, or a specific policy pledge — reflects both short‑term headlines and longer strategic direction for Labour.
Market prices represent the collective, real‑time assessment of which outcome is most likely to occur given available information; they update as new briefings, leaks, polling, or events alter expectations, but are not guarantees of what will happen.
It refers to the next official PMQs session held in the House of Commons at its scheduled time; if that session is canceled or replaced by an emergency statement, the platform's published resolution policy will specify which subsequent sitting is used.
Resolution follows the market's published rules: outcomes are matched to what Starmer actually said during the PMQs session, and if multiple outcomes apply the platform's adjudication criteria (for example exact‑phrase match or first occurrence) will be used—check the event’s settlement rules for specifics.
No; this market is specific to remarks made during the PMQs session itself. Pre‑PMQs comments are relevant only insofar as they shape expectations and market prices prior to settlement.
Only words spoken by Keir Starmer during the PMQs session are used to resolve this market; interventions by others or the PM’s response do not create outcomes unless they cause Starmer to utter the listed phrase or topic.
Look at recent PMQs transcripts and patterns—typical topics, recurring lines, and rhetorical style—to gauge likely choices, but adjust for current news, strategic shifts, and any new Labour messaging that could change his approach.