| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| NATO | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| Prince Andrew | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| Iran | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| Healthcare | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| Trump | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| Epstein | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| Defense / Defence | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| Reform | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| Immigrant / Immigration | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| Ceasefire | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
This market asks which of twelve predefined statements Keir Starmer will make during the next Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs); it matters because PMQs shape media narratives and can reveal opposition priorities and government vulnerabilities. Market trading aggregates traders' expectations about which line or issue Starmer will choose to highlight.
PMQs is a fixed weekly parliamentary session where the Leader of the Opposition challenges the Prime Minister; outcomes depend on the day's agenda, recent news, and strategic choices by both parties. Historically, Starmer's interventions have ranged from targeted policy attacks to broader thematic critiques (e.g., economy, health, public services), but exact wording and emphasis shift with current events and briefing priorities.
Market prices represent the collective expectation about which predefined statement Starmer will use and update as new information arrives. Use prices as a signal of market consensus about likely lines, but always consult the market's official resolution criteria for how exact wording or paraphrase is treated.
The twelve outcomes are the predefined statements listed on the market page; view the event's outcome list on the Kalshi market details to see each outcome's exact wording and any resolution notes.
Resolution follows the event's official criteria: some markets accept reasonable paraphrases or equivalent meaning, while others require exact wording. Check this market's resolution rules (on the event page) for the adjudication standard.
This market's close is listed as TBD; typically markets of this type close shortly before the PMQs session starts or at a time specified in the event details, so monitor the market page for an announced close time.
Most single-statement markets resolve to one winning outcome as specified by the rules; if multiple utterances match different outcomes the market's resolution procedure will state whether only the first matching utterance qualifies or if another rule applies—see the event resolution text.
New government announcements, leaked documents, a major breaking story involving ministers or policy, press briefings from Labour setting a target line, or changes to the Commons timetable can all prompt rapid reassessment and price movement.