| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel / Israeli | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ukraine | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ceasefire | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Drone | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nuclear | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Iran | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Energy | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Trump | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| NATO | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Reform | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Defense / Defence | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Oil | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Immigrant / Immigration | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which words, lines, or topics Keir Starmer will use during the next Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs). It matters because PMQs is a high‑visibility forum where the Opposition leader signals strategy, tests government vulnerabilities, and frames media coverage.
Prime Minister's Questions is the weekly parliamentary session (when the House of Commons sits) where the Prime Minister answers questions from MPs and the Leader of the Opposition. The Leader of the Opposition uses PMQs to press the government on current events, policy priorities, and political narratives; historically, content is shaped by recent news, government announcements, and backbench pressure.
Market prices reflect traders' aggregated beliefs about which lines or topics will be spoken at the specific, next PMQs session; they move as new information arrives (e.g., announcements, leaks, or agenda changes). Use prices as a dynamic indicator of market consensus, not a fixed prediction.
The event refers to the next formally scheduled PMQs session in the House of Commons during which the Prime Minister is present and the Leader of the Opposition speaks. If the scheduled session is postponed, the market will reference the next occurrence that meets those conditions.
Resolution will rely on authoritative public records such as the official Hansard transcript and contemporaneous parliamentary video/broadcasts; these records are used to verify exact wording and context.
Only wording captured in the official record (transcript or video) during the PMQs session will be considered; whether a paraphrase or interrupted phrase counts depends on the precise wording and context as recorded, per the market's resolution rules.
No — this market is confined to statements made during the defined PMQs session in the House of Commons. Separate comments outside that setting are not part of the market's resolution.
The market's close time is listed as TBD; typically, markets on a speech close shortly before the event begins. Final settlement will occur after PMQs concludes and the official record is available, with any adjudication based on those records.