| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATO | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Iran | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Immigrant / Immigration | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ceasefire | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Trump | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Reform | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Defense / Defence | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Israel / Israeli | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ukraine | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Blockade | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Energy | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nuclear | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Oil | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Epstein | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks specific keywords or phrases uttered by Prime Minister Keir Starmer during the weekly Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) session in the House of Commons. It serves as a sentiment and priority barometer for the current administration's legislative focus.
Prime Minister's Questions is a constitutional convention in the UK where the Prime Minister faces direct scrutiny from the Leader of the Opposition and other MPs. Because these sessions are heavily choreographed and reactive to the week's breaking news, the vocabulary used by the Prime Minister often signals shifts in government policy or attempts to frame the national narrative. Market participants analyze recent political scandals, economic indicators, and ongoing crises to anticipate the language used during these high-stakes exchanges.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of whether a specific phrase will pass the threshold of being officially recorded in the Hansard transcript during the session.
The official Hansard transcript published by the UK Parliament is the definitive source for verifying if a specific phrase was spoken.
No, this market is strictly limited to utterances made on the floor of the House of Commons during the designated PMQs time slot.
Parliamentary privilege ensures that what is said in the chamber is part of the official record, making the Hansard transcript the sole arbiter for this market.
In the event of an unscheduled cancellation, the market conditions regarding session occurrence will dictate whether the contract is voided or pushed to the next available date.
Multiple phrases or keywords can be triggered in one session depending on the market definitions, provided each phrase appears in the official transcript.