| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fentanyl | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Mexico / Mexican | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Espionage | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cartel | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ICE / DHS | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Cyberattack / Cyber Attack | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Ukraine | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Iran | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Election | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Nuclear | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Trump (3+ times) | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hamas | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| ISIS | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Drone | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Hormuz | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Event does not qualify | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks what Kash Patel will say during his appearance at the hearing titled "Worldwide Threats." His testimony can shape public and policymaker perceptions about intelligence assessments, legal issues, and geopolitical risks.
Kash Patel is a former defense/intelligence staffer who has been a public figure on topics related to national security. "Worldwide Threats" hearings typically review global risks, intelligence findings, and agency readiness, and they often include partisan questioning that shapes the public record. The hearing context — including recent events, declassification decisions, and committee priorities — will influence the scope and tone of his remarks.
Market prices aggregate traders' real-time expectations about which specific statements or mentions will occur. Treat those prices as one signal among reporting, official transcripts, and expert analysis rather than a definitive account of what will happen.
The committee publishes a public hearing notice with date, time, and location; appearances can be rescheduled, so check the committee's official calendar and the hearing notice linked on the market page.
Outcomes map to specific predicted mentions or claim categories (for example, references to a country, a program, an allegation, or policy recommendation). See each outcome's label on the market page for the exact phrasing being tracked.
If testimony would disclose classified material, the committee may move to a closed session, redact portions of public testimony, or instruct the witness to decline answering; that limits what appears in open-session transcripts and thus which market outcomes can be realized.
Committee questioners, other witnesses (current intelligence or defense officials), recently declassified reports, and new public documents or leaks can prompt him to confirm, deny, or adjust prior statements.
Use market moves as an immediate indicator of how traders interpret new testimony or reporting. Confirm with the official transcript, video, and reputable live reporting before drawing conclusions, because prices reflect collective judgment and can update rapidly.