| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Event does not qualify | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Luck / Lucky | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Fraud | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Usha | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Biden | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Saint Patrick Day / Saint Patrick's Day | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| American Dream | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Tariff | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Gold | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Shamrock | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Democrat | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Iran | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of a set of predefined remarks JD Vance will make during his St. Patrick's Day breakfast; many traders use such markets to gauge how political messaging or news may shift after a public appearance. The outcome matters because specific lines or topics can drive media coverage, fundraising, or intra-party reactions.
St. Patrick's Day breakfasts and similar holiday events are common venues for politicians to deliver prepared remarks, signal priorities to constituents and donors, and respond to recent news. JD Vance is a high-profile senator and former candidate with a record of well-publicized statements; what he chooses to emphasize at a public breakfast can echo through state and national coverage. Historical patterns show speakers at tightly scripted events often stick to themes (policy, culture, identity, local ties) but may also pivot in response to breaking developments.
Market prices reflect the consensus of traders about which specific remark will be spoken, and they update as new information (scripts, leaks, prior interviews) becomes available. Treat the market as a real-time aggregator of available evidence rather than a fixed forecast.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific, pre-defined phrase, topic, or type of statement that the market creator will use to determine which remark occurred; only the outcome that most closely matches Vance's actual spoken words as resolved by the market’s rules will be declared the winner.
Resolution typically relies on whether the paraphrase conveys the same material content as a listed outcome; moderators use official audio/video transcripts and the market’s literal/semantic criteria to decide which outcome best fits the remark.
The market’s operator (KALSHI) or its designated resolution team will determine the outcome using publicly available primary sources such as official recordings, press pool reports, or transcripts in accordance with the platform’s resolution policy.
The market’s official close time is set by the platform and is listed on the event page; if it is currently TBD, monitor the market page or platform announcements for the posted close time, which is often tied to the scheduled start of the event or to a specified cutoff before remarks begin.
Published speech excerpts, last-minute changes in the event agenda, breaking news about Vance or key topics he might address, and shifts in who will attend or what questions are expected from the audience or press can all materially affect which remark he ultimately makes.