| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Epstein | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $83K | Trade → |
| Iran | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $55K | Trade → |
| Fraud | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $25K | Trade → |
| Tariff | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| Noem | 99% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| Mask / Masked | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| Corrupt / Corruption | 99% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| Congress / Congressional | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| ICE / Border | 99% | 0¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| Trump | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which of several specific statements or topics Representative Jamie Raskin will say during his MS NOW interview, letting traders express expectations about his messaging. It matters because his words on a national interview can shape media coverage and political narratives.
Jamie Raskin is a U.S. Representative and constitutional law scholar who regularly appears in broadcast interviews to discuss legislative, legal, and political issues. His past media appearances, committee roles, and the current news cycle all help frame what he might emphasize in this interview. The program format and host priorities also shape the likely topics and tone.
Market odds reflect the crowd’s current consensus about which listed outcome best matches Raskin’s actual words and update as new information arrives. Treat the market as a real-time signal about expectations rather than a guarantee of the result.
Settlement will rely on authoritative sources specified by the market rules—typically the official MS NOW broadcast recording and/or an official transcript from the network; if those are ambiguous, the market’s resolution policy lists tie-breakers or arbitration procedures.
The market outcome depends on the precise contract definitions: some outcomes require Raskin to utter an exact quoted phrase, others require an explicit mention of a topic; settlement follows the stated matching rules (e.g., first matching statement, exact quote, or explicit endorsement).
The market creator defines each outcome’s wording and specificity in the event description and resolution rules; prospective traders should read those definitions closely to know whether they require verbatim quotes, paraphrases, or topical mentions.
Resolution timing depends on when an authoritative recording or transcript is publicly available and the market’s stated settlement timeline; some markets resolve shortly after the interview, others wait for a confirmed transcript or adjudication if disputes arise.
Settlement focuses on what Representative Raskin actually said according to the authoritative record: interruptions may truncate or change phrasing, but the transcript of his spoken words is what matters. How those cases are treated is governed by the event’s resolution criteria.