| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Event does not qualify | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Trump (3+ times) | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| America First | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| China | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Free Speech / Freedom of Speech | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Debate / Debated | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Border | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Erika | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| TikTok / Social Media | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Iran | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Biden | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which of a set of predefined phrases, topics, or claims Jack Posobiec will utter during his CPAC speech. It matters because markets aggregate real-time expectations about a live political event and can highlight which messages are most likely to be amplified to a conservative audience.
CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference) is an annual gathering of conservative activists, elected officials, and media personalities where speakers aim to set priorities and energize base voters. Jack Posobiec is a right-leaning commentator and organizer known for provocative statements and online activism; his CPAC appearances typically reflect current conservative talking points and reactions to recent political controversies. Because CPAC is both a platform and a tightly targeted audience, speakers often tailor remarks toward movement priorities and media narratives of the moment.
Market odds here reflect the collective expectation of traders about what Posobiec will say during the designated speech window; they are a real-time summary of perceived likelihoods, not definitive facts. Interpret prices as shifting signals driven by news, leaks, and trader views rather than guarantees of outcomes.
Closing time is set by the exchange and shown on the event page; if listed as TBD, watch the market or exchange announcements for the official close, which commonly occurs when the outcome can be verified (during or shortly after the speech).
Resolution typically relies on verifiable sources such as the official CPAC livestream, video recordings, or an official transcript; the exchange's resolution rules on the event page specify whether exact wording, paraphrase, or topical mention qualifies.
Only remarks made within the defined scope of the 'CPAC speech' window count; check the event description for whether pre- or post-speech remarks, interviews, or audience Q&A are included or excluded from resolution.
Whether multiple outcomes can win depends on the market design (mutually exclusive vs. multiple-winner); consult the event rules—some 'mentions' markets allow multiple outcomes to resolve positively, others are exclusive.
Review themes, recurring phrases, and rhetorical patterns from his prior CPAC or public appearances to identify likely talking points, but remember past behavior is informative, not determinative—current events and the specific CPAC agenda will heavily shape the actual speech.