| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.75% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 3.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.25% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.00% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 5.50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Above 4.50% | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which inflation bracket Brazil will fall into in December 2026; it matters because inflation expectations affect interest rates, investment decisions, wages, and fiscal planning.
Brazil’s inflation history includes episodes of high volatility and a long-running institutional focus on price stability led by the Central Bank of Brazil. In recent years the economy’s inflation path has been shaped by monetary policy, fiscal balance, exchange-rate moves and commodity price swings, all of which remain relevant for Dec 2026 outcomes.
Market prices aggregate participant views about likely inflation outcomes and update as new data and news arrive; they are not guaranteed forecasts but a real‑time summary of collective expectations that can change quickly with new information.
The event page lists the close as TBD; the final closing time and date are determined by the platform and will be posted on the market page—check the market or the exchange’s rules for official close information.
Outcomes are typically settled using Brazil’s official consumer price index published by the national statistics agency (IBGE) — the IPCA (Índice de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo) for December 2026 — but confirm the market’s settlement rules on the platform for the exact data source and series.
Each of the 10 outcomes corresponds to a predefined inflation range (a bracket) for December 2026; the market page lists the exact numeric boundaries for each bracket and those definitions govern settlement.
Key actors include the Central Bank of Brazil (monetary policy), the federal government and Ministry of Finance (fiscal policy), large exporters/importers and commodity producers (which affect prices and the exchange rate), and global central banks and commodity markets that shape imported inflation.
Relevant moves come from IPCA monthly releases, central bank rate decisions and minutes, major fiscal announcements or laws, significant exchange‑rate swings, commodity price shocks (food, oil), and unexpected supply disruptions or geopolitical events that affect domestic prices or inflation expectations.