| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $43K | Trade → |
| Valuation | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $36K | Trade → |
| Hot Dog | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $27K | Trade → |
| Automation | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $26K | Trade → |
| Inflation | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $25K | Trade → |
| Labor | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $23K | Trade → |
| Spending | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $23K | Trade → |
| Holiday | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
| Revenue | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| Renewal | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| Membership | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| Inventory | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| Kirkland | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| Tariff | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| Expansion | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which specific topic or phrase Costco will state on its next earnings call; that information can affect investor expectations about sales, margins, membership trends, and capital allocation.
Costco is a membership-based warehouse retailer whose earnings calls typically cover same-store sales, membership metrics, pricing and gross margin dynamics, and capital deployment. Management commentary on inflation, fuel/gas operations, membership fee strategy, and supply-chain trends has driven market attention in past calls and remains central in the current macro environment.
Market prices reflect the aggregated beliefs of traders about which mention will occur and update as new information arrives; treat them as a continuously updated consensus, not as company guidance or a substitute for the official transcript.
The market’s close is designated by the exchange (currently listed as TBD); resolution typically occurs after the official call/transcript is available and the platform applies its settlement rules, so check the contract page for the final close and resolution timeline.
Each outcome corresponds to a specific mention, phrase, or topic category defined on the market page; consult the event’s outcome list on the exchange for exact wording and settlement criteria, since each outcome is mutually exclusive per the contract.
Settlement follows the exchange’s published adjudication rules: many contracts require the specific mention to appear in the official call transcript or replay, and the platform will adjudicate ambiguous language per its rules.
Prepared remarks from the CEO and CFO are the most likely source of planned mentions, while the live Q&A can introduce new confirmations, clarifications, or unanticipated comments that match outcome categories.
Pre-release items like the earnings press release, analyst previews, macro data (retail sales, CPI), competitor announcements, leaks, or breaking news about supply chain or membership initiatives can prompt traders to reprice outcomes ahead of or during the call.